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Forget the furious debates on discounts, GMV, and valuation. It was always about code.
PROLOGUE
Late 2014.
At a small hotel in Bengaluru, the three Bansals of Flipkart—Sachin,
Binny, and Mukesh—were sitting with the team of subsidiary fashion
e-retailer Myntra for a strategy offsite. Sachin conducted the
proceedings with the air of a father figure, a senior manager recalls.
Mukesh played sutradhaar. Binny summed up the discussion points
and the next steps. Sachin wanted to press on with an aggressive mobile
strategy that he believed held the key to the future for the
Flipkart-Myntra combine. His inspiration came from consumer behaviour.
As the head of a company that derived a large share of its revenue
selling phones, he knew the age of the smartphone was here.
In 2014, smartphone sales in India touched 140 million. Mary Meeker’s
Internet trends report, considered a bible for the digital economy,
says more than 40% of online sales that year was on smartphones.
“Consumers are showing us the way,” Sachin goaded the team. “If we don’t
focus on mobile as the primary channel, somebody else will.” There was
another, more urgent reason to move rapidly on mobile. Amazon, the
planet’s oldest and biggest online retailer, was charging ahead in
India. Flipkart couldn’t afford to let it gain ground on mobile. If the
average young smartphone user has space for five apps, analytics firm
App Annie typically names WhatsApp (messaging), UC Browser (browsing),
Facebook (social media), and Hotstar (entertainment) or TrueCaller
(caller ID) as four of them.
If there’s space for just one retail app, Sachin could not let Amazon
seize that. At stake was something far more precious than revenues:
user data, the holy grail for e-commerce firms. It is this data that
drives engineering and innovation—the zillion lines of code that lure
customers into buying more, or revealing their preferences so that they
can be shown things they may want to buy. Whoever controls this data
controls the market.
Amazon had lost China, bullied by local players who understood the
market much better. Jeff Bezos, its talismanic founder, was prepared to
do whatever it takes to win in India—including signing a $2 billion (Rs.
12,634 crore) cheque meant to outspend anybody who came in the way. For
instance, on the counting day after the 2014 elections, when Indians
went online in unprecedented numbers to catch result updates, Amazon
India’s digital advertising spend equalled what it then spent in a
month. The danger for Flipkart was that if Amazon managed to push its
mobile app through a similar blitzkrieg, it would nullify Flipkart’s
biggest competitive advantage: deep knowledge and granular data on the
local user, based on its seven-year head start. Amit Agarwal, vice president and country manager, Amazon India
Without that advantage, it was a matter of time before Amazon
trounced Flipkart in its own backyard. There was only one road ahead:
Focus every last engineering dollar on building a wall around mobile.
From early 2015, Flipkart started herding its mobile site users to
its app, shutting down phone-browser traffic. Myntra went a step
further—it shut down its desktop site and became app-only. Sachin knew
he risked losing a large chunk of users. But it didn’t worry him.
Rather, he saw it as a way to identify a mass of loyal users on mobile.
Their inputs and spending habits would power Flipkart’s innovation
engine and give it the edge it needed to defend its turf against Amazon.
In hindsight, the thinking proved too abstruse for his own team.
“Sachin was committing the company to a future nobody else could see,”
recalls the former senior manager at Myntra, who witnessed the then
CEO’s audacious thinking. For Sachin, though, audacity wasn’t a new
thing.
Subrata Mitra of Accel Partners India, Flipkart’s first investor,
spotted the trait in Flipkart’s formative years, when the young company
punted on cash on delivery (CoD) in a country where the online buyer was
still a fuzzy, none-too-trustworthy entity. “They met their targets in
half the time, and asked: ‘can we go to the next step?’ Sachin would say
10x, even though the board would [say] 2x or 3x … It was
fascinating—and scary,” Mitra had told me during a chat.
Audacity is essential to build a company that claims to engage with
75 million users and deliver 8 million shipments every month—scarcely
believable if you consider India’s total active Internet user base was
only 32 million when Flipkart began in late 2007 as a startup delivering
books. It was the same audacity, unforeseen in India’s Internet
businesses, that would prompt another investor to tell the CEO of a
marquee digital company: “If these guys can meet their numbers, I will
always be four quarters ahead of competition.”
That investor, Lee Fixel of Tiger Global, issued his first cheque of
$10 million to Flipkart in 2010, en route to becoming its biggest
investor. Sure enough, Flipkart came to dominate India’s e-commerce
market. Its two biggest rivals, Snapdeal and Amazon India, were roughly
half way behind as of March 2015. Also read: Trail of the Tiger
But as Flipkart ran its race, something sneaked up on it. Audacity
suddenly seemed to be losing out to the other stuff that decides
winners: discounts, gross merchandise value (GMV), valuation.
Particularly with Amazon breathing down its neck and funding drying up,
Flipkart became a meme in furious “future-of-Indian-e-commerce” debates.
This is the story of what those debates forgot.
Back in 2014, when Flipkart was announcing its acquisition of Myntra,
I had asked Myntra’s co-founder and then CEO Mukesh Bansal to name the
first thing about the acquiring company that caught his eye. “I admire
Flipkart’s very deep investment in technology,” he replied. “Not many
Indian companies can claim that.” As an example, he spoke of Flipkart’s
strides in search engine optimisation (SEO). “Flipkart really cracked
SEO, way back in 2008,” Mukesh said. “We had a six- to nine-month head
start [in funding] over Flipkart. But suddenly, Flipkart’s traffic was
growing every day.” Flipkart eventually overtook Myntra. “We thought
they had no money but were very impressed with the innovation and
thinking behind leveraging SEO, which no one in the ecosystem knew at
the time.”
Flipkart wanted to be the reason Indians bought products on the
Internet. Its focus on technology to solve product e-commerce for the
domestic market put it in a league of its own: Even the storied Indian
IT and BPO industry derived nearly 90% of its profitable revenues from
global enterprise clients.
In contrast, Flipkart’s growing battalion of coders—just over 1,300
at last count—worked to solve problems for desi customers—you and me.
“Flipkart started with that technology engine,” says a Delhi-based
strategic consultant who has worked with the company. “The founders are
technology guys—for them, it is not just an expenditure they incurred in
the initial phase. Their mandate to the team is to innovate
constantly.” An investor who had turned down Flipkart in 2007 says:
“Flipkart took the technology playbook out of Amazon, and built
e-commerce for India out of it.”
Binny and Sachin are technology guys. For them, it is not just an expenditure they incurred in the initial phase.
It’s that technology DNA, backed by a staggering execution record,
which saw Flipkart hog $3.2 billion of the roughly $6 billion in foreign
investments on homegrown e-commerce players, including the trifecta of
rival unicorns Snapdeal, ShopClues, and Paytm. If Amazon engineers
grudgingly respect Flipkart, it is because of the latter’s astute
reading of how to make tech work for India. And nearly three years after
Amazon launched in India, it is technology that is the theatre for a
battle for the ages: Both Sachin Bansal and Amit Agarwal, country
manager of Amazon India, are techies before being CEOs, meaning they
have built organisations where tech thinking has primacy over everything
else.
More crucially, it was the choices Flipkart made around
technology—chief among them that decision to go mobile-only—which
defined the derring-do and exacerbated the fault lines within the
company, prompting naysayers to all but write it off. And yet, a clear
understanding of those choices, sans drama and intrigue, has been
missing from the narrative.
Distilled to its core, this is a classic “homegrown pioneer vs. giant
multinational” story—think Nirma vs. Hindustan Lever, Thums Up vs.
Coca-Cola, or Mahindra & Mahindra vs. Toyota Motors—with technology
as the leitmotif. Flipkart has scale and local nous. Amazon has staying
power and a platform it has seasoned globally for 21 years. Which
combination will carry the day?
The Flipkart founders did not speak to us for this story, but Amit
Agarwal did. We also managed to speak to several Flipkart insiders and
players in the wider e-commerce ecosystem who had a ringside view of the
company’s tech playbook and the thinking behind its thrust to mobile.
Many of them didn’t want to be named, fearing they will be dragged into
the increasingly sensationalised debate. This story also gives them a
voice. I
THIS STORY COULD HAVE SEVERAL BEGINNINGS, but none more telling than a
development from last November. Amazon became the second-largest U.S.
stock holding of Tiger Global, one of the world’s most-watched tech
investors whose every move is thought to be an indication of which way
the wind is blowing. In India, this was the time when all the talk was
about jittery investors pulling back from underperforming copycats of
Valley successes. Business daily Mint said it with a revealing headline:
“Flipkart’s largest investor Tiger Global raises stake in Amazon.”
This January, Amazon’s chief financial officer Brian Olsavsky claimed
Amazon India’s gross sales in the December 2015 quarter surpassed its
full-year sales of 2014. It coincided with growing chatter about how
Flipkart had missed its GMV target for the full year.
“Three years ago, Flipkart was the undisputed leader and customers
swore by it. Today, people say: Amazon gives the best experience,” says
an industry source in Mumbai. “Flipkart is still a respected brand, but
for it to command the valuation (north of $15 billion before the recent
markdowns), it has to answer one question: Who am I?”
The mobile-only bet was to be the answer to that question.
Flipkart wasn’t the only one pushing mobile. In April 2015, Snapdeal
bought out mobile recharge company FreeCharge for $400 million. By
August, it had got Amitava Ghosh, former CTO of cab aggregator
TaxiForSure, to head its Bengaluru development centre of 250 techies.
Another e-commerce upstart Paytm was already leveraging its origin as a
mobile wallet company to differentiate itself. Even in Amazon’s plans
mobile had a disproportionate share.
“As a percentage of traffic, mobile continues to be bigger [than any
other medium],” says Akshay Sahi, who heads customer experience at
Amazon Seller Services. “When we innovate in India, up to 97% of the
product work is for mobile. Everything is focussed on the app. That is
the flagship experience we are building.”
But as the leader of the pack, Flipkart’s all-or-nothing plan
generated the most intense commentary. (Some of it was borderline
bizarre. For instance, serial entrepreneur Alok Kejriwal described the
desktop shutdown as a ploy by Flipkart to slow down sales, which would
help the company in pruning losses since each sale still costs the
company money. Sachin Bansal replied with a widely circulated takedown
of Kerjiwal’s theory on Twitter.)
As it turned out, the plan was a non-starter. In November 2015, seven
months after it all began, Flipkart revived its mobile site amid a
barrage of complaints from angry customers. Myntra would also reopen its
catalogue on the Web and is working to restore its desktop site too.
But that one move gave Amazon just the opening it needed to go in for
the kill.
Sachin Bansal’s two biggest calls before this—building in-house
logistics and delivery and CoD—had become industry standards. But with
this gambit, he practically sacrificed the desktop and mobile browser
users of Myntra (a net 15% drop-off from its growing aggregate user
base) as well as some 7% of Flipkart’s mobile users.
Inevitably, there were tensions within Flipkart. “What people see
from the outside is how consumers left when the mobile strategy
backfired. But even internally, it created a lot of strife,” the
industry source says. You can see why, if you consider that Flipkart had
spent millions of dollars to amass these users in the first place.
Letting them go gave Amazon an unexpected leg-up, and it wasn’t going to
squander it. II
USERS ARE ONLY one part of this battle. The other, less visible part,
involves sellers. Winning sellers is critical to dominating e-commerce
in India. Here, government rules allow 100% FDI only if you follow the
marketplace model, where sellers or merchants supply goods rather than
e-commerce companies peddling their own inventory. The rules also cap
sales per merchant on any marketplace at 25% of total sales. Akshay Sahi, head, customer experience, Amazon Seller Services
Amazon went after sellers right from its entry in India and has
scaled its network from 100 in 2013 to 85,000. Flipkart, on the other
hand, had to adjust its focus to keep pace—since its inception, when
there was no regulatory dicta for e-commerce, it had focussed all its
resources on getting more customers and not sellers. (Flipkart breached
the 100,000 seller mark this February.)
“You can’t rely on integration API (application program interface, a
tool that makes it possible to manage software applications) or
sophisticated mechanisms in India because these are typically small
[shopkeepers],” says Amazon India’s Agarwal. A video by the company
captures how shopkeepers generally do their stock checks. They scribble
code letters to help them remember if a product is in stock. The role of
technology is to replicate the comfort of this unique physical
behaviour on an app. Only that will hook sellers to the app and keep
them coming back, says Agarwal.
“When sellers scale up their business on a platform, they get access
to more powerful technology, which helps boost exposure of their
inventory,” explains a partner who works on Flipkart’s Sellers Hub. But
scaling calls for a lot of handholding, since most sellers are exploring
the online medium, and the technology driving it, for the first time.
According to a source who works in the seller ecosystem, this is
where Amazon scores big. It woos sellers with rich data analytics that
can be understood by any layperson. It also invests heavily in smooth
resolution of payments. “Amazon reconciles money order to order. In
Flipkart, it is not like that,” says a tech entrepreneur who works with
sellers to boost sales on both Amazon and Flipkart.
Amazon’s charm offensive also includes the Chai Cart and Tatkal
initiatives. Chai Carts are three-wheeled vehicles that serve tea,
water, and lemon juice to small business owners even as Amazon reps
teach them about selling online. With Tatkal, a studio-on-wheels, Amazon
helps sellers launch services in less than an hour, including
registration, imaging, and cataloguing services, as well as basic seller
training. Both became popular enough to merit a mention in Jeff Bezos’s
2015 annual letter to shareholders.
Then there’s Seller Flex, a feature that allows a shopkeeper to
convert his or her store or warehouse into a fulfilment centre by using
Amazon software. “It is meant to help sellers who are unable to ship
their items to Amazon’s warehouse because shipping costs are too high,”
explains Agarwal. In the past six months, Amazon India has launched 21
such nodes. It is an India-first innovation for the company.
The tech entrepreneur who has worked with both companies outlines
areas where Flipkart has improved. “Its reports for sellers now offer
easy visibility of what is in stock, what is selling well, and what is
not. It also tracks the sellers’ performance.” All this may sound like
hygiene—except Flipkart is building things ground up, unlike Amazon
which can borrow from a well-established global template.
But Agarwal brings the conversation back to customers. “If you look
at mobile web and PC web traffic, we are the leader by far in terms of
time spent as well as conversion. In pretty much all the metrics that
customers—not VCs—care about, we are the leader,” he says. He is
dismissive of the “battle” hyperbole. “We are only focussed on how we
are going to position India as Amazon’s largest geography over the next
10-20 years—period.”
And to think that Agarwal, Sachin, and Binny once worked from the
same office, where all three of them honed the beliefs that would take
them on their separate journeys. III
IT IS THE LAST DAY of the financial year 2016. Fittingly, I am
spending it with Agarwal at Amazon India’s office in Bengaluru’s World
Trade Centre, exchanging notes on possibly the most talked-about
business story of the year. I can’t resist asking him: Did you know
Sachin and Binny back when all three of you were with Amazon Web
Services (AWS)? Agarwal smiles. “Well, it was a small team, and I know
the people who work for me.” Mrinal Chatterjee, director (technology), India Payments,
Amazon Development Centre
Those were anxious days for Agarwal. At 32, he had been asked to lead
Amazon Development Centre’s (ADC) India operations. (Amazon has similar
units in 13 countries, including China, Japan, and five in Europe.)
Since 2004, he had been in charge of about 50 software engineers who
were innovating for the Amazon.com platform. He had also been entrusted
with launching AWS here, a cloud services outfit that is now Amazon’s
most profitable business. But he wasn’t happy.
Agarwal was an early believer of the Amazon story. A Stanford
post-grad in computer science, he had joined the company’s Seattle
headquarters in early 1999, a year before the dotcom bust, drawn by Jeff
Bezos’s 1997 letter to shareholders. That letter has appeared in every
Amazon annual report since. “Today, online commerce saves customers
money and precious time. Tomorrow, through personalisation, online
commerce will accelerate the very process of discovery,” read one of its
most prophetic parts. But Agarwal was not assigned to the e-commerce
business. It bothered him.
“[My work felt] very tangential. Every day, I was sceptical: What am I
doing in this team?” Agarwal recollects. In hindsight, the stint taught
him the true meaning of using technology to become the world’s most
customer-centric company. Amazon was going after a diverse set of
customers: creators, developers (AWS), readers (Kindle), online
consumers, sellers. “Working with ADC taught me how flexible our brand
and culture is to foster innovation.”
Amazon was foremost a technology company, and Agarwal’s team played a
critical role in its evolution by shaping its relationship with
developers.
In November 2007, Agarwal moved back to Seattle as “shadow” and
technical advisor to Bezos. “We [shadows] had to help Jeff make more
effective use of time. I was always travelling with him and sitting in
on his meetings. It helped me develop a holistic view of Amazon,” he
says.
Many others stayed on at ADC or took up assignments at other Amazon
locations worldwide before returning to launch e-commerce in India. But
there were two coders who moved on: senior software engineer Sachin
Bansal, and Binny Bansal, one of Sachin’s references to AWS.
Like most young coders, they were geeks. Sachin loved gaming, while
you were likely to catch a painfully shy Binny reading Stieg Larsson.
Their working styles complemented each other. Sachin would set
outrageous goals, Binny would lay out the steps to get there. People
today call Binny’s approach binary: 0-1, this or that. “He is very sharp
in terms of planning for the next level. He will ask incisive
questions, and spot where a plan can go wrong,” says a senior manager
who has seen them work in tandem. “With Sachin on the other hand, it is
about the size of the ambition.”
Sachin quit ADC first, in 2007. He moved to Binny’s apartment, where
the duo chiselled the idea of Flipkart by studying the success of
India’s online commerce pioneers—ticketing websites like MakeMyTrip.
Sachin told Fortune India in late 2011: “There were lots of people
buying tickets online, but not many people looking to buy products
online. Why should that be? If people can trust Internet companies with
their credit card information online for tickets, why not for
products?”
He identified customer service as the missing link. “There are
significant problems, and if somebody solves those problems, a lot of
value can be generated. We jumped in with that intent: bring customer
focus into the industry,” Sachin said. Last-mile logistics was to be
Flipkart’s big weapon to ensure that buyers who had never shopped on the
Internet got a hassle-free shopping experience.
It would be expensive. But Binny argued that technology offsets the
cost of building physical presence, after the company crossed the top 30
cities. This—suburban India—was the threshold where access to products
as well as authentic customer data typically dwindled in physical retail
chains. This was the big opportunity for e-retail. IV
BY 2011, Flipkart had committed to expanding its logistics and
delivery arm, which accounted for a large chunk of its 3,500 employees.
Technology was only 5% of this (180 persons). Even that was a big jump
given as recently as two years before, the tech team was just Sachin and
Binny. Back then, Flipkart used shared servers. But its tech focus was
sharply evident. “Everything we do is technology-based,” Sachin told me
in late 2011, when it clocked 10 million visits a month. (Today, the
number is 10 million a day.)
“The website you see is just 10% of what the technology team does,”
Sachin explained. At the backend, Flipkart had large servers. There were
payments-tech teams to integrate with the IT systems in banks, Visa,
MasterCard, and so on. “The largest tech team we have is in supply
chain, which builds automation, systems for warehousing, logistics,
procurement, even trip planning and delivery prediction,” Binny weighed
in.
Flipkart was then delivering in seven cities. The focus was on
reliability—building out logistics and improving warehouse systems and
technologies to handle scale. But all along, its engineering team was
readying the platform to serve many, many more destinations. For
Flipkart customers in 2011, the order actually reached home in the
promised time, often in two days in large cities. It was solving a far
greater number of problems than early starters eBay India or Fabmall,
which had entered the space before the turn of the century, or even
newer competitors like Snapdeal and ShopClues. Also read: Snap Kart Flip Deal
Flipkart was spending much more than any of these companies, yes. But
it was also deploying more tech—and faster—to grab the lead in amassing
customer data. In 2011, its contemporary Homeshop18 had 2.3 million
unique visitors while Naaptol had 2.15 million—Flipkart was ahead at 2.7
million, according to November 2011 comScore data. (Snapdeal was still a
couponing site, and ShopClues was just born.) By June 2013, when
Amazon entered the market, Flipkart’s logistics arm was already clocking
90,000 shipments a day.
By February 2014, Flipkart had breached $1 billion in GMV, a term
that denotes the value of the inventory that gets sold on an online
platform. (It’s a much vilified metric but remains a good indicator of a
market where buyers are not naturally inclined to order products
online.) But with Amazon at its heels, it had to turn its attention to
building a lasting edge. The stage was set for Sachin Bansal’s big
mobile bet.
ITS MASSIVE SCALE and implications meant the bet could have only come
from Sachin. Ex-employees say Sachin is vital to the product and
engineering pack that is core to Flipkart and its culture. “Good
entrepreneurs take gutsy calls with incomplete information and live by
those calls. Sachin can take big calls and rally the team,” says a
person who has been closely associated with Flipkart.
In both big calls of the past—last-mile logistics and CoD—he had
played oracle. His goal-setting had a galvanising effect on techies,
especially because Indian consumer Internet companies before Flipkart
were rarely ambitious about local markets. “Flipkart has the best
technology any Indian company could build,” says a former engineer. “And
it has to do with Sachin.”
The engineer says that when Flipkart solves a technology problem, it
isn’t for the sake of putting out just another function or feature. It
runs deeper. If catalogues are to be created for the website, compiling
information from tens of thousands of sellers, it involves designing a
standard framework for 300,000 and more listings per month—cutting out
duplication. “Flipkart won’t be happy with just a catalogue that looks
and feels good. The goal is accuracy. You have to win customer trust
because that catalogue is all a customer sitting far away can go by.”
Techies thrive when coding is done for that greater goal: trust,
reliability, solving problems for the local user they can relate to, not
a faceless ‘onsite’ client sitting thousands of miles away.
Flipkart had to strengthen another skill—execution—in the face of
Amazon’s well-oiled machine. This is what Binny, with his eye for
detail, would oversee.
The Myntra acquisition added a formidable third leg to the
Sachin-Binny partnership: Mukesh Bansal. Myntra had given Flipkart the
largest market share in fashion. It also boosted Flipkart’s performance
on a range of vital parameters: frequency of visits, the number of items
bought per order, repeat purchase, and higher margins compared to its
other staples, books and mobile devices. Mukesh, who had earlier spent
six years in Silicon Valley, was appointed to the Flipkart board, in
addition to a broader management role as Flipkart’s head of fashion. Also read: Merger, no. IPO, yes. Mukesh Bansal's plans for Myntra
The Flipkart founders were excited about the new configuration. They
often stated in public forums that their investors have allowed both
companies to run independently. Flipkart and Myntra had grown from being
startups, and the three co-founders enjoyed exchanging learnings.
There was a lot to learn from Mukesh. He had survived an attack from
Rocket Internet-backed Jabong and kept Myntra ahead. Even under capital
constraints, he had invested in hiring leaders like Ganesh Subramanian
from Walmart as chief operating officer and Shamik Sharma from the Bay
Area to head technology. Pre-acquisition, Myntra would often lose out to
Flipkart in hiring tech talent because it was perceived to be more of a
fashion brand than a tech venture. Sharma’s leadership made a
difference.
Given that track record, Mukesh was asked to put tech leadership in
place at Flipkart. The ideal candidates would have experience in solving
problems for 200 million-plus users—think Google, Twitter, LinkedIn, or
Square. During our conversation at the time of the Myntra-Flipkart
deal, Mukesh laid out the task: “We have an aggressive agenda going
forward to grow talent on both sides: in India and globally. In fact, we
are seeing a massive shortage of technology talent.”
By mid-2015, he had hired Saikiran Krishnamurthy as COO of Flipkart’s
commerce platform and Ananth Narayanan to succeed him in Myntra as CEO
(both are ex-McKinsey). Another key hire was chief product officer Punit
Soni, who had earlier led a series of important product portfolios at
Google. Soni would emerge as a prominent player in the internal strife
around the mobile-only strategy, as we’ll see.
Another ex-Google recruit was chief technology officer Peeyush
Ranjan, who worked as senior director of engineering for the search
giant based out of Mountain View, and had also led engineering at Google
India out of Bengaluru. Ranjan understood India. At Google, he had
closely overseen the development of Google Map Maker, a product that
allowed users to edit Google Maps. It was a solution designed
specifically for India, where publicly available addresses are often
fragmented and inaccurate.
Ranjan also understood the value of the local coder solving local
problems. At Google India, for every one engineer focussing on India,
roughly 10 were solving problems for the rest of the world. “The utility
of product managers to the local market was not that high, even though
they understood what should be done for the locals,” he says. “Now with
India becoming important for every company, the same product managers
are very valuable.”
By early 2015, Flipkart had a new management structure. It would now
have three decision-makers—Sachin, who would head new initiatives,
Binny, who would look after supply chain, and Mukesh, who would be
responsible for the core commerce platform, with product and engineering
(Soni and Ranjan) reporting to him. In hindsight, this was another area
where Amazon India had a better plan: It made sure that technology,
commercial, and operations all rolled up to one boss—Amit Agarwal—who
would in turn execute Bezos’s vision for India. V
BEZOS BEGAN TYPING his 2010 shareholder letter with the following
words: “Random forests, naïve Bayesian estimators, RESTful services,
gossip protocols, eventual consistency, data sharding, anti-entropy,
Byzantine quorum, erasure coding, vector clocks … walk into certain
Amazon meetings, and you may momentarily think you’ve stumbled into a
computer-science lecture.” Peeyush Ranjan, chief technology officer, Flipkart
“The e-commerce platform is made of hundreds of software services
that work in concert to deliver functionality ranging from recomv
mendations to order fulfilment to inventory tracking,” Bezos wrote. Two
years after the financial meltdown, one thing had to be made clear to
financial investors: The geek will inherit the earth.
Amazon’s balance sheet tells the story: “technology and content” is
its third-highest operating expense that cost it $12.5 billion globally
in the calendar year (CY) ending December 2015, after “cost of sales”
($72 billion) and “fulfilment” ($13 billion). More interestingly,
technology accounts for the highest stock-based compensation ($1.2
billion in CY15). Of course, Amazon’s technology and content expenses
don’t reflect e-commerce alone. They include other businesses like AWS
and the on-demand video network that is taking on Netflix. But with
e-commerce as its flagship, Bezos knows technology spending is vital for
long-term dominance.
Why does that matter to Amazon India? It does because Amazon’s tech
teams are united globally on one platform. The ADC Agarwal incepted in
Bengaluru as a 50-member team in 2004 now employs more than 10,000
across four Indian cities. “When we build software technologies, it has
to handle Amazon’s [global] scale—not just Amazon India,” says Mrinal
Chatterjee, director for payments at Amazon Development Centre. “It
ensures we don’t have to rework the same technology if it is required in
another market.” This is a machine at play, with systems and processes
honed over many years.
Then, there is the exchange of ideas. Amazon India can afford to
prioritise mobile product development, as the other global centres
continue work on the desktop product. In its home market, the U.S., 78%
of Amazon’s traffic still comes from the desktop. There’s also
project-specific collaboration. For instance, the work in India on
two-factor authentication for payments draws from, and contributes to,
the global team’s work on multi-factor authentication which came into
effect in Europe from the start of this year. A delegation of Amazonians
from Europe was in India in March to understand two-factor
authentication.
New recruits at Amazon undergo engineering boot camps and hackathons
across geographies. Chatterjee has made passport mandatory for his team
members after they complete two years. “If engineering teams are working
in isolation, we will not get the best. We have to actively
collaborate,” he says.
Amazon India’s Sahi says: “As you build architectural solutions, you
run into errors and challenges.” Having a global technology platform
helps because “our folks have insights from others who have worked on
those platforms, telling them ‘this is going to work’ or ‘this is going
to break.’”
For an Amazonian in India, tasks on the collaborative platform
broadly come under three buckets. First, engineers sitting in another
location can help develop a solution for India. Second, there may be
features Amazon India is working on which are already on the global
product road map and need to be accelerated. In this case, engineers
from India step in. And third, building a solution for India that is not
on the global road map. “We build such solutions and sell them to the
rest of the world,” Sahi says.
Sahi cites an India-first feature exported globally: accounts on the
Amazon platform for first-time Internet users who don’t have e-mail
accounts and operate only on mobile. When the user opens the Amazon app,
it automatically reads the mobile number in the background. The user is
prompted to set a password based on an OTP (one-time password), which
too the app can read automatically. “This ends up removing a number of
steps. When you think of the latencies involved, all of it adds up,”
says Sahi. “We have done a bunch of other experiments—some successful,
some not—but users don’t find out about them.” It is a culture of
iteration Amazon has perfected over two decades.
Sachin was only too familiar with Amazon’s technology prowess. As
someone who had always set Flipkart’s vision, he knew he had to make a
big, bold statement to keep Amazon at bay. But even he may not have
fully understood how the consequences of his decision would ripple
through the company he had built. VI
THE ROLLBACK of the mobile-only plan wasn’t Flipkart’s biggest
failing. App Annie says it is still India’s No. 1 shopping app, with
downloads breaching the 50 million mark this February. (According to an
App Annie analyst, Amazon led Flipkart on Google Play downloads in Q1
2016, specifically in January and February.) What disturbed Flipkart’s
cheerleaders was its inability to coalesce as a team around the plan, or
rally around each other to modify it, or contain damage and win the
perception battle when things unravelled.
“Sachin’s strategy was brilliant. If anything, we couldn’t execute it
as fast as we would have liked,” says a senior manager. To be sure, it
wasn’t an impulsive call. He had mulled over it for almost three
quarters—analysing every possible data point and leading indicator—and
only then did he put it forward as a directional shift, says another
manager.
Sachin’s rationale was this: Going app-only would mean users would
have access to only one channel. The company would be able to capture
the shoppers’ experience and what they were searching for, in a manner
that it simply couldn’t from a browser. Even if users uninstalled the
app, Flipkart’s coders would take away valuable data on device storage
and functionality limitations, which would help them innovate for future
users. The larger question: “If you are indexing big on mobile, how do
you deliver discovery without taxing the customer?” as Ravi Garikipati, a
senior vice-president at Flipkart, puts it. In effect, the company
could innovate based on actual learnings of the limitations users
experienced
But the team wasn’t prepared for all the complexities of what Sachin
demanded of them. “What is the most frictionless way for users to
discover your platform? It is still the mobile browser,” says a source
closely associated with the company. Flipkart shut off that option for
seven months.
Other doubts swirled. For instance, how many apps would people keep?
“If you’re really looking for the next 100 million users, you have to
assume they don’t have enough phone memory to store more than five
apps,” says the Flipkart associate. Why push them away by cutting out
the browser? “It was about priorities,” he says. “Sachin wanted the
thinking in the team to be very focussed. But there was probably no need
to shut down mobile web.”
The confusion within the ranks claimed a series of high-profile
scalps. On the evening of 10 February, Myntra’s employees—past and
present—discovered from a WhatsApp update that Mukesh had stepped down
from Flipkart in less than a year. Given his rapid rise in Flipkart, the
news shocked many. Conspiracy theories started flowing, the most common
one suggesting a fallout with Sachin and Binny. That’s hard to prove.
But in a conversation with one ex-employee, I hear something that may
explain a fallout, had there been one: “Flipkart is a very different
company from the kind that Mukesh built at Myntra.”
When the Flipkart founders and board offered Mukesh the role of CEO
of commerce platform, it was taken as a sign of the company’s maturity.
Vivek Wadhwa, director of research at Duke University, has a keen eye on
Indian tech entrepreneurs. In March 2015, in The Economic Times, Wadhwa
compared the development to Google co-founder Larry Page allowing Eric
Schmidt to take over as CEO under pressure from the board. Sachin wasn’t
under such duress; Mukesh had the board’s trust to free up Sachin from
the nitty-gritty of operations, so that he could dedicate all his time
on big-picture ideas and the defence against Amazon.
“When it comes to performance, Mukesh is extremely sharp. He sets
very high bars. Many a time, people don’t get him,” says a former
colleague. One of the tougher challenges Mukesh undertook was to make
Flipkart a leaner, more efficient organisation. Its headcount was
ballooning every quarter. Its legal team alone is estimated to be around
40 persons (almost as big as a mid-sized legal firm). The HR department
is some 400 persons.
By the end of 2015, Flipkart was a 35,000-person organisation; almost
half of them were part of the supply chain overseen by Binny and around
15,000 were on contract. Mukesh was heading the core commerce platform,
with fewer than 2,000 employees, including engineering and product. He
wanted to make this unit leaner. In the 18 months Mukesh spent at
Flipkart, he “wanted to change it from being a people-dependent
organisation,” says a headhunter in the know. But the mobile-only
strategy would prove to be the biggest distraction for the core team.
According to three ex-employees of Flipkart, Soni, one of the
company’s star hires, was opposed to the idea from the get-go. As head
of product, his task was to build customer-facing features. Turning off
users went against that very basic tenet, especially if Flipkart was
serious about building a following of 200 million shoppers. One industry
observer comments: “As the breakout leader, Flipkart had the option to
build on its strengths—its user base—and out-execute Amazon. The
app-only move was a big strategic blunder,” and showed an unhealthy
obsession with competition. Soni flagged off his concerns with Sachin in
early 2015 but couldn’t change his mind.
Both were right in their own ways. Soni, responsible for product,
wanted to expand the existing user base and keep it user-friendly. The
mobile strategy would estrange users and sabotage the mission. The
outcry on social media to Myntra’s app-only strategy was vindication for
his position. A strategic consultant in Bengaluru tells me: “It is the
equivalent of shutting two entry points of a mall that has high
footfalls, and telling buyers where to enter from.” To the outside
world, it smacked of arrogance.
It is not clear how Sachin countered Soni. But two sources try to
paint a picture of what he might have said: There are fewer than 40
million online buyers of products today. If Flipkart had to build a
strategic advantage, it had to innovate for users beyond the 50 million
mark, which is a kind of industry benchmark. Reaching 200 million users,
its ultimate goal, entailed going really deep into India, dominated by
lower-end smartphones with less storage. Flipkart needed to aggressively
pursue this path before Amazon got there.
It was an irreconcilable rift. Soni quit.
According to a former senior manager at Myntra, Mukesh was initially
in favour of taking Myntra app-only. But here’s the other thing about
him: “With better information on the table, Mukesh can change his
decision.”
The numbers confirmed Amazon’s growth after Myntra vacated space.
Amazon claimed in a press release that in tier I cities, it saw an
almost 2.5x increase in apparel sales in terms of ordered units between
January 2015 and January 2016. It also saw a 4.8x increase in ordered
units from tier II cities. All these cities clocked a growth of 3x or
more in comparison to January last year.
Myntra’s business team was expecting a drop-off in customers. At
first, the magnitude of it (15%) did not worry Mukesh, according to two
managers at Myntra. The app was drawing users to offset those who went
away. By January 2016, the app had 8 million active users—almost twice
the number 12 months before. But Amazon was beating Myntra’s discounts,
was more visible on TV, and spending aggressively on digital marketing
to bag new users, on both desktop and mobile. Two industry sources
dispute this, saying Myntra was also spending big on discounts.
In the October-December quarter of 2015, Myntra ranked fifth among
shopping apps (by monthly active users) on App Annie, behind Flipkart,
Amazon, Paytm, and Snapdeal. But according to a source, with more and
more data proving Amazon’s surge, Mukesh grew uncomfortable. With the
desktop still live, there were fewer user dropouts for Flipkart compared
with Myntra. But the ones who left were turning to Amazon. There were
talks that Flipkart may also go app-only. As chief of commerce, Mukesh
was responsible for Flipkart’s overall business performance.
According to the source, by now he was fundamentally opposed to the
experiment because he believed it was not customer-friendly. But Sachin
stayed firm because this was a strategic call. Around three months
later, there was a management rejig at Flipkart. Binny was made CEO, and
Sachin became executive chairman. Mukesh moved on.
Fortune India gathered a variety of market-share data from industry
sources. A Morgan Stanley report in February 2016 puts Flipkart’s share
at 45%, which few in the industry agree with. The consensus is: Of the
roughly $12 billion GMV that the five e-commerce companies fought for in
2015, Amazon has taken its share to above 30%, while Flipkart has
slipped below 40%. One analyst estimates that Amazon is more than 70% of
Flipkart at the end of fiscal year 2016. This means if Flipkart sold
goods worth Rs 100 on its platforms, Amazon sold goods worth Rs 70 in
the same period. Ravi Garikipati, senior vice president, Flipkart
Did Flipkart let go of the four-quarter advantage that Lee Fixel
envisaged early on? Yes. Did the lower GMV outlook dent its chances of
raising big-ticket funds? Yes, because fundraising is often a multiple
of market share. You could also say that Flipkart gave away its
hard-earned momentum to Amazon. But there is one thing Flipkart got
right: In the face of the most daunting competitor in the world, it
leaned towards innovation and invested in a world-class technology
leadership team.
For a moment, think about Big Retail in India. The industry is now
riding the omni-channel wave, bullish on the imminent rise of the
4G-enabled shopper. But has Future Retail or Reliance Retail faced the
likes of Walmart, Target, or Carrefour? No. Flipkart did face its
biggest challenger—and it responded in the only way it could, by making
bold calls based on technology.
Sachin’s push may have been too aggressive, but it saw Flipkart’s
engineering team recast itself as a mobile-first outfit. If it hadn’t,
its scale may have become a burden, as had happened with Nokia’s
feature-phone business in India when Android and Samsung disrupted it.
Or, think of how Meru Cabs, stuck in its desktop legacy, was defeated by
Ola, which was quickly engineered for the app generation.
Ultimately, if you cannot trust technology and take quantum bets,
there is no long-term future for you in e-commerce. Ask Bezos, who in
the 2016 shareholder letter puts “eagerness to invent and pioneer” high
up on his to-do list, but after “customer obsession”. EPILOGUE
Last November, Flipkart launched Lite with the aim to deliver an
app-like experience on the mobile browser. If you are a Lite user, you
could think of it is a 4 kb version of flipkart.com. “When you send
people from a website to an app, the conversion is 2% to 6%. We got 83%
conversion to Flipkart Lite,” says Ranjan, Flipkart’s CTO. He led a team
of five engineers who developed Lite in 42 days.
The Internet in India has an anaemic average speed of 2.8 megabytes
per second (Mbps)—among the worst in the world (see graphic). Ranjan was
largely able to move the needle at Flipkart from being mobile-only to
mobile-first in keeping with this sobering reality. “There is a lot of
thinking we went through. Our ultimate goal is not to get the user to
install an app. We want to give the user the best experience possible.
Sure, this is possible on apps, but can we try another way?”
Ranjan called some friends at Google Chrome for help. Google
implemented features like a home screen icon for Lite, which gave it the
same look and feel as an app.
“What we realised is, we have to do what is right for our customers.
No strategy is going to live longer than that,” says Ranjan. “What
products does India need, and how do I build them? How do I solve the
hard problems of India through technology? No Indian company or
multinational was dedicated fully to that.” In Indian e-commerce, it is
still Day One.
Flipkart vs. Amazon
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